TITLE: “Linking exposure dose to infectious disease development using mechanistic models” (using SARS-CoV-2 in a mouse model as an illustration)
ABSTRACT: Disease development after exposure to a pathogen does not follow a yes/no process, but rather a spectrum of disease manifestations influenced by host, pathogen and environmental factors. In particular, exposure dose can impact incubation time, shedding intensity and disease severity. However, classical dose-response models only consider the probability of disease development, neglecting the diversity of disease manifestations. In contrast, more complex within-host models are generally parameterized with invasive data, limiting their potential applications. I will present a modelling framework of the dose-dependence of disease development probability and incubation time using non-invasive data, illustrated by experimental data collected in rodents exposed to SARS-CoV-2, and the potential applications of such models.